Q4 2019 U.S. DIESEL VEHICLE SALES COMMENTARY AND INSIGHT BY BAUM & ASSOCIATES

The Mercedes Sprinter, Ford Transit, Ford F-150, and Ram 1500 lead the advanced diesel category, and again represented over 80 percent of total sales in December with strong rates of growth for both the Mercedes Sprinter and Ford Transit. Recent launches of diesel versions of the Chevrolet Silverado 1500, GMC Sierra 1500, and Ram 1500 (a relaunch in this case) will enable strong sales in the new year. For most other vehicles, volumes are down and will continue at that low level. Thus, volumes for advanced diesels will be dependent on these key pickups and large vans with little volume outside those segments. For the entire year of 2019, sales were down as Ram 1500 diesels were out of the market for much of the year and volumes in the utility segment declined. The F-150, the new Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra, and Mercedes Sprinter were the only vehicles with substantial gains for the year. Sales of advanced diesels were 0.7 percent of total sales for 2019, down from 0.8 percent in 2018.

Commercial diesel models are in Class 2 and 3 vehicles (volumes are estimated) and were up in December and for the entire year. Volumes for the Chevrolet Express are now available and are included. For December, diesel sales were strong for all entries with an 8 percent increase as compared to December 2018. For the year as a whole, volumes were up modestly. Growth in Ram Pickup volumes allowed the category to increase, while the rest of the vehicles were down. Sales of commercial diesels represented 2.3 percent of total sales in 2019, up from 2.2 percent in 2018.

Q4 2019 U.S. DIESEL CAR SALES BY BRAND AND MODEL

2018 U.S. DIESEL VEHICLE SALES COMMENTARY AND INSIGHT BY BAUM & ASSOCIATES

The light-duty diesel segment is paced by three entrants: the Mercedes Sprinter, Ford Transit, and Ford F-150. The F-150 is of course new for 2018 and launched last Spring. Sales represent approximately 5 percent of total F-150 sales. Note that sales of the F-150 diesel are now included and have been added for the entire year. In Spring 2019, diesel sales will increase significantly as the Silverado and Sierra half-ton pickups and the Ram 1500 will all offer diesel entrants. There is a large drop off after the three category leaders, with GM and the European-based manufacturers completing the category. Sales of these light-duty diesels represent approximately 0.8 percent of total sales, which is up modestly from 2017.

Commercial diesel sales are sold on the ¾ and 1 ton versions of the Ram, F-Series Super Duty, and Silverado/Sierra. Sales increased in 2018 and total sales represent 2.2 percent of sales, but of course a much larger share of large pickups, where these engines are common. It should be noted that GM has seen strong growth in this category as their new product in the medium-duty segment is enabling increased sales in Class 2 and 3 as many corporate customers buy trucks of various classes (as a package) for their business needs. Ford’s market-leading position in this segment of course translates into its leading position in diesel sales.

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2018 U.S. DIESEL CAR SALES BY BRAND AND MODEL