Q1 2020 U.S. DIESEL VEHICLE SALES COMMENTARY AND INSIGHT BY BAUM & ASSOCIATES

The Ford Transit, Chevrolet Silverado, Ford F-150, and Ram 1500 lead the advanced diesel category, and again represented over 80 percent of total sales in March with strong rates of growth. The Mercedes Sprinter and GMC Sierra are the other major players in this category. We would note that pickup sales are likely to disproportionately suffer in the next few months given their significant usage in business which will be looking to reduce expenditures as the economy contracts and then restarts. Volumes of Ford's F-150 are expected to decline due to a changeover in the Fall to a new model. We still expect the changeover to occur, although the timing may be modified somewhat. Sales of advanced diesels were 0.9 percent of total sales so far this year, up from 0.6 percent in 2019.

Commercial diesel models are in Class 2 and 3 vehicles (volumes are estimated) had a very strong month across the board. For March, diesel sales were strong for all entries with a 3 percent increase as compared to March 2019, while overall vehicle sales were down dramatically. Year-to-date, volumes were up strongly although this will certainly change in coming months given the stoppage in the economy affecting these vehicles. GM and FCA were competing strongly among these pickup entries in the first quarter, leading to strong sales. Sales of commercial diesels represented 2.8 percent of total sales so far this year, up from 2.1 percent in 2019.

Q1 2020 U.S. DIESEL CAR SALES BY BRAND AND MODEL

2018 U.S. DIESEL VEHICLE SALES COMMENTARY AND INSIGHT BY BAUM & ASSOCIATES

The light-duty diesel segment is paced by three entrants: the Mercedes Sprinter, Ford Transit, and Ford F-150. The F-150 is of course new for 2018 and launched last Spring. Sales represent approximately 5 percent of total F-150 sales. Note that sales of the F-150 diesel are now included and have been added for the entire year. In Spring 2019, diesel sales will increase significantly as the Silverado and Sierra half-ton pickups and the Ram 1500 will all offer diesel entrants. There is a large drop off after the three category leaders, with GM and the European-based manufacturers completing the category. Sales of these light-duty diesels represent approximately 0.8 percent of total sales, which is up modestly from 2017.

Commercial diesel sales are sold on the ¾ and 1 ton versions of the Ram, F-Series Super Duty, and Silverado/Sierra. Sales increased in 2018 and total sales represent 2.2 percent of sales, but of course a much larger share of large pickups, where these engines are common. It should be noted that GM has seen strong growth in this category as their new product in the medium-duty segment is enabling increased sales in Class 2 and 3 as many corporate customers buy trucks of various classes (as a package) for their business needs. Ford’s market-leading position in this segment of course translates into its leading position in diesel sales.

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2018 U.S. DIESEL CAR SALES BY BRAND AND MODEL